منابع مشابه
Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination
the Amazon or the Nile?) or prediction problems (e.g., The overconfidence observed in calibration studies Who will win the election, the incumbent or the chalhas recently been questioned on both psychological lenger?). For each question, subjects select one of the and methodological grounds. In the first part of the two answers and assess the probability that their anarticle we discuss these is...
متن کاملFrequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?
Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cogn...
متن کاملthe relationship between efl learners linguistic and logical intelligence and the frequency and types of informal fallacies and evidence in argumentative writing
مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی وجود رابطه ی ممکن میان هوشهای زبانی و منطقی زبان آموزان انگلیسی و تعداد و انواع مغلطه های زبانی و شواهد در متنهای استدلالی آنان انجام پذیرفته است.بدین منظور، 70 زبان آموز با سطح زبانی متوسط به بالا از دو موسسه زبان انگلیسی در ایران انتخاب شده و پرسشنامه های مزبوطه را تکمیل نموده و متنی استدلالی نوشتند. متون نوشته شده مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و نمرات پرسشنامه ها محاسبه شده ...
15 صفحه اول: metadiscourse in introduction sections of applied linguistics and physics research articles: exploring variation in frequency and type
abstract in written mode of language, metadiscourse markers are used commonly to help writers in general and academic writers in particular to produce coherent and professional texts. the purpose of the present study was to compare introduction sections of applied linguistics and physics articles regarding their use of interactive and interactional metadiscourse markers based on the model pro...
15 صفحه اولProbability Model of Allele Frequency of Alzheimer’s Disease Genetic Risk Factor
Background and Purpose: The identification of genetics risk factors of human diseases is very important. This study is conducted to model the allele frequencies (AFs) of Alzheimer’s disease. Materials and Methods: In this study, several candidate probability distributions are fitted on a data set of Alzheimer’s disease genetic risk factor. Unknown parameters of the considered dis...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature
سال: 1940
ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/146114a0